Wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 airport surveillance: key trends at the Cape Town International Airport.

Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater has revealed the role of mobility in the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the surveillance of airport wastewater in cities across the world has demonstrated how travel entry points can give an indication of trends in transmission. This study undertook wastewater surveillance at the Cape Town International Airport (CTIA) to assess the use of a WBE approach to provide supplementary information on the presence of COVID-19 at a key air travel entry point in South Africa. Grab wastewater samples (n = 55) were collected from the CTIA wastewater pump station and analysed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) method. The study found a correlation between the wastewater data and clinical cases reported in the City of Cape Town during various time periods and during the peak of a COVID-19 wave. Highly elevated viral loads in the wastewater were observed at times there was increased mobility through the airport. The study also revealed elevated viral load levels at the airport despite the stricter restrictions and through the lower restrictions. The study findings indicate wastewater surveillance and airports can provide supplementary information to airport authorities to assess the impacts of imposed travel restrictions.

Associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and health service disruptions in 10 countries.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported in several countries. Yet, patterns in health service disruption according to country responses remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and disruptions in 31 health services in 10 low- middle- and high-income countries in 2020. METHODS: Using routine health information systems and administrative data from 10 countries (Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand) we estimated health service disruptions for the period of April to December 2020 by dividing monthly service provision at national levels by the average service provision in the 15 months pre-COVID (January 2019-March 2020). We used the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) index and multi-level linear regression analyses to assess associations between the stringency of restrictions and health service disruptions over nine months. We extended the analysis by examining associations between 11 individual containment or closure policies and health service disruptions. Models were adjusted for COVID caseload, health service category and country GDP and included robust standard errors. FINDINGS: Chronic disease care was among the most affected services. Regression analyses revealed that a 10% increase in the mean stringency index was associated with a 3.3 percentage-point (95% CI -3.9, -2.7) reduction in relative service volumes. Among individual policies, curfews, and the presence of a state of emergency, had the largest coefficients and were associated with 14.1 (95% CI -19.6, 8.7) and 10.7 (95% CI -12.7, -8.7) percentage-point lower relative service volumes, respectively. In contrast, number of COVID-19 cases in 2020 was not associated with health service disruptions in any model. CONCLUSIONS: Although containment policies were crucial in reducing COVID-19 mortality in many contexts, it is important to consider the indirect effects of these restrictions. Strategies to improve the resilience of health systems should be designed to ensure that populations can continue accessing essential health care despite the presence of containment policies during future infectious disease outbreaks.

Vascular thrombosis after single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine in healthcare workers in South Africa: open label, single arm, phase 3B study (Sisonke study).

Objective: To assess the rates of vascular thrombotic adverse events in the first 35 days after one dose of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson) in healthcare workers in South Africa and to compare these rates with those observed in the general population. Design: Open label, single arm, phase 3B study. Setting: Sisonke study, South Africa, 17 February to 15 June 2021. Participants: The Sisonke cohort of 477 234 healthcare workers, aged ≥18 years, who received one dose of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. Main outcome measures: Observed rates of venous arterial thromboembolism and vaccine induced immune thrombocytopenia and thrombosis in individuals who were vaccinated, compared with expected rates, based on age and sex specific background rates from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database (database of longitudinal routinely collected electronic health records from UK primary care practices using Vision general practice patient management software). Results: Most of the study participants were women (74.9%) and median age was 42 years (interquartile range 33-51). Twenty nine (30.6 per 100 000 person years, 95% confidence interval 20.5 to 44.0) vascular thrombotic events occurred at a median of 14 days (7-29) after vaccination. Of these 29 participants, 93.1% were women, median age 46 (37-55) years, and 51.7% had comorbidities. The observed to expected ratios for cerebral venous sinus thrombosis with thrombocytopenia and pulmonary embolism with thrombocytopenia were 10.6 (95% confidence interval 0.3 to 58.8) and 1.2 (0.1 to 6.5), respectively. Because of the small number of adverse events and wide confidence intervals, no conclusions were drawn between these estimates and the expected incidence rates in the population. Conclusions: Vaccine induced immune thrombocytopenia and thrombosis after one dose of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine was found in only a few patients in this South African population of healthcare workers. These findings are reassuring if considered in terms of the beneficial effects of vaccination against covid-19 disease. These data support the continued use of this vaccine, but surveillance is recommended to identify other incidences of venous and arterial thromboembolism and to improve confidence in the data estimates. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04838795.

Modeling the positive testing rate of COVID-19 in South Africa using a semi-parametric smoother for binomial data

Identification and isolation of COVID-19 infected persons plays a significant role in the control of COVID-19 pandemic. A country's COVID-19 positive testing rate is useful in understanding and monitoring the disease transmission and spread for the planning of intervention policy. Using publicly available data collected between March 5th, 2020 and May 31st, 2021, we proposed to estimate both the positive testing rate and its daily rate of change in South Africa with a flexible semi-parametric smoothing model for discrete data. There was a gradual increase in the positive testing rate up to a first peak rate in July, 2020, then a decrease before another peak around mid-December 2020 to mid-January 2021. The proposed semi-parametric smoothing model provides a data driven estimates for both the positive testing rate and its change. We provide an online R dashboard that can be used to estimate the positive rate in any country of interest based on publicly available data. We believe this is a useful tool for both researchers and policymakers for planning intervention and understanding the COVID-19 spread.

Geospatial variations in socioeconomic conditions and health outcomes in COVID-19 era: insights from South Africa (2020–2022)

South Africa also has the highest burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related comorbidities in Africa. We aimed to quantify the temporal and geospatial changes in unemployment, food insecurity, and their combined impact on depressive symptoms among South Africans who participated into several rounds of national surveys. We estimated the population-attributable risk percent (AN - PMC9988606

Modeling the positive testing rate of COVID-19 in South Africa using a semi-parametric smoother for binomial data.

Identification and isolation of COVID-19 infected persons plays a significant role in the control of COVID-19 pandemic. A country's COVID-19 positive testing rate is useful in understanding and monitoring the disease transmission and spread for the planning of intervention policy. Using publicly available data collected between March 5th, 2020 and May 31st, 2021, we proposed to estimate both the positive testing rate and its daily rate of change in South Africa with a flexible semi-parametric smoothing model for discrete data. There was a gradual increase in the positive testing rate up to a first peak rate in July, 2020, then a decrease before another peak around mid-December 2020 to mid-January 2021. The proposed semi-parametric smoothing model provides a data driven estimates for both the positive testing rate and its change. We provide an online R dashboard that can be used to estimate the positive rate in any country of interest based on publicly available data. We believe this is a useful tool for both researchers and policymakers for planning intervention and understanding the COVID-19 spread.

Quantifying impact of obesity on cardiometabolic comorbidities and public health implications: Insights from South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South Africa has the highest obesity and hypertension rates in the African region. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to quantify the correlates and burden of obesity and their impacts on cardiometabolic conditions. METHODS: The study population was 80,270 men(41 %) and women(59 %) who participated in South African national surveys (2008-to-2017). Weighted-logistic regression models and the population attributable risk (PAR %) were used after accounting for the correlation structure of the risk factors in a multifactorial setting. RESULTS: Overall, 63 % of the women and 28 % of the men were either overweight or obese. Parity was identified as the most influential factor and exclusively associated with 62 % of the obesity in women; being married/cohabiting had the highest impact on obesity in men and associated with 37 % of the obesity. Overall, 69 % of them had comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes and heart disease. More than 40 % of the comorbidities were attributed to overweight/obesity. CONCLUSION: Developing culturally appropriate prevention programs are urgently needed to raise awareness of obesity, hypertension and their impacts on severe cardiometabolic diseases. This approach would also significantly reduce COVID-19 related poor health outcomes and premature deaths.

Heterogeneity in COVID-19 infection among older persons in South Africa: Evidence from national surveillance data.

Background: The 2021 World Health Organization study on the impact of COVID-19 on older people (≥60 years) in the African region highlighted the difficulties they faced as the virus spread across borders and dominated the way of life. These difficulties included disruptions to both essential health care services and social support, as well as disconnections from family and friends. Among those who contracted COVID-19, the risks of severe illness, complications, and mortality were highest among near-old and older persons. Objective: Recognizing that older persons are a diverse group including younger- and older-aged individuals, a study was conducted to track the epidemic among near-old (50-59 years) and older persons (≥60 years) in South Africa covering the 2 years since the epidemic emerged. Methods: Using a quantitative secondary research approach, data for near-old and older persons were extracted for comparative purposes. COVID-19 surveillance outcomes (confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) and vaccination data were compiled up to March 5th, 2022. COVID-19 surveillance outcomes were plotted by epidemiological week and epidemic waves to visualize the overall growth and trajectory of the epidemic. Means for each age-group and by COVID-19 waves, together with age-specific rates, were calculated. Results: Average numbers of new COVID-19 confirmed cases and hospitalizations were highest among people aged 50-59- and 60-69-years. However, average age-specific infection rates showed that people aged 50-59 years and ≥80 years were most vulnerable to contracting COVID-19. Age-specific hospitalization and death rates increased, with people aged ≥ 70 years most affected. The number of people vaccinated was slightly higher among people aged 50-59 years before Wave Three and during Wave Four, but higher among people aged ≥ 60 years during Wave Three. The findings suggest that uptake of vaccinations stagnated prior to and during Wave Four for both age groups. Discussion: Health promotion messages and COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance and monitoring are still needed, particularly for older persons living in congregate residential and care facilities. Prompt health-seeking should be encouraged, including testing and diagnosis as well as taking up vaccines and boosters, particularly for high-risk older persons.

Tracking health system performance in times of crisis using routine health data: lessons learned from a multicountry consortium.

COVID-19 has prompted the use of readily available administrative data to track health system performance in times of crisis and to monitor disruptions in essential healthcare services. In this commentary we describe our experience working with these data and lessons learned across countries. Since April 2020, the Quality Evidence for Health System Transformation (QuEST) network has used administrative data and routine health information systems (RHIS) to assess health system performance during COVID-19 in Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, Republic of Korea and Thailand. We compiled a large set of indicators related to common health conditions for the purpose of multicountry comparisons. The study compiled 73 indicators. A total of 43% of the indicators compiled pertained to reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH). Only 12% of the indicators were related to hypertension, diabetes or cancer care. We also found few indicators related to mental health services and outcomes within these data systems. Moreover, 72% of the indicators compiled were related to volume of services delivered, 18% to health outcomes and only 10% to the quality of processes of care. While several datasets were complete or near-complete censuses of all health facilities in the country, others excluded some facility types or population groups. In some countries, RHIS did not capture services delivered through non-visit or nonconventional care during COVID-19, such as telemedicine. We propose the following recommendations to improve the analysis of administrative and RHIS data to track health system performance in times of crisis: ensure the scope of health conditions covered is aligned with the burden of disease, increase the number of indicators related to quality of care and health outcomes; incorporate data on nonconventional care such as telehealth; continue improving data quality and expand reporting from private sector facilities; move towards collecting patient-level data through electronic health records to facilitate quality-of-care assessment and equity analyses; implement more resilient and standardized health information technologies; reduce delays and loosen restrictions for researchers to access the data; complement routine data with patient-reported data; and employ mixed methods to better understand the underlying causes of service disruptions.

Using Wastewater Surveillance to Compare COVID-19 Outbreaks during the Easter Holidays over a 2-Year Period in Cape Town, South Africa.

Wastewater surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown to be an important approach to determine early outbreaks of infections. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is regarded as a complementary tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 trends in communities. In this study, the changes in the SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater during Easter holidays in 2021 and 2022 in the City of Cape Town were monitored over nine weeks. Our findings showed a statistically significant difference in the SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral load between the study weeks over the Easter period in 2021 and 2022, except for study week 1 and 4. During the Easter week, 52% of the wastewater treatment plants moved from the lower (low viral RNA) category in 2021 to the higher (medium to very high viral RNA) categories in 2022. As a result, the median SARS-CoV-2 viral loads where higher during the Easter week in 2022 than Easter week in 2021 (p = 0.0052). Mixed-effects model showed an association between the SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral loads and Easter week over the Easter period in 2021 only (p < 0.01). The study highlights the potential of WBE to track outbreaks during the holiday period.

South African University Staff and Students' Perspectives, Preferences, and Drivers of Hesitancy Regarding COVID-19 Vaccines: A Multi-Methods Study.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy poses a threat to the success of vaccination programmes currently being implemented. Concerns regarding vaccine effectiveness and vaccine-related adverse events are potential barriers to vaccination; however, it remains unclear whether tailored messaging and vaccination programmes can influence uptake. Understanding the preferences of key groups, including students, could guide the implementation of youth-targeted COVID-19 vaccination programmes, ensuring optimal uptake. This study examined university staff and students' perspectives, preferences, and drivers of hesitancy regarding COVID-19 vaccines. A multi-methods approach was used-an online convenience sample survey and discrete choice experiment (DCE)-targeting staff and students at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The survey and DCE were available for staff and students, and data were collected from 18 November to 24 December 2021. The survey captured demographic characteristics as well as attitudes and perspectives of COVID-19 and available vaccines using modified Likert rating questions adapted from previously used tools. The DCE was embedded within the survey tool and varied critical COVID-19 vaccine programme characteristics to calculate relative utilities (preferences) and determine trade-offs. A total of 1836 staff and students participated in the study (541 staff, 1262 students, 33 undisclosed). A total of 1145 (62%) respondents reported that they had been vaccinated against COVID-19. Vaccination against COVID-19 was less prevalent among students compared with staff (79% of staff vs. 57% of students). The vaccine's effectiveness (22%), and its safety (21%), ranked as the two dominant reasons for not getting vaccinated. These concerns were also evident from the DCE, with staff and students being significantly influenced by vaccine effectiveness, with participants preferring highly effective vaccines (90% effective) as compared with those listed as being 70% or 50% effective (ß = -3.72, 95% CI = -4.39 to -3.04); this characteristic had the strongest effect on preferences of any attribute. The frequency of vaccination doses was also found to have a significant effect on preferences with participants deriving less utility from choice alternatives requiring two initial vaccine doses compared with one dose (ß = -1.00, 95% CI = -1.42 to -0.58) or annual boosters compared with none (ß = -2.35, 95% CI = -2.85 to -1.86). Notably, an incentive of ZAR 350 (USD 23.28) did have a positive utility (ß = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.76 to 1.53) as compared with no incentive. Given the slow take-up of vaccination among youth in South Africa, this study offers valuable insights into the factors that drive hesitancy among this population. Concerns have been raised around the safety and effectiveness of vaccines, although there remains a predilection for efficient services. Respondents were not enthusiastic about the prospect of having to take boosters, and this has played out in the roll-out data. Financial incentives may increase both the uptake of the initial dose of vaccines and see a more favourable response to subsequent boosters. Universities should consider tailored messaging regarding vaccine effectiveness and facilitate access to vaccines, to align services with the stated preferences of staff and students.

Safety evaluation of the single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine among healthcare workers in the Sisonke study in South Africa: A phase 3b implementation trial.

BACKGROUND: Real-world evaluation of the safety profile of vaccines after licensure is crucial to accurately characterise safety beyond clinical trials, support continued use, and thereby improve public confidence. The Sisonke study aimed to assess the safety and effectiveness of the Janssen Ad26.COV2.S vaccine among healthcare workers (HCWs) in South Africa. Here, we present the safety data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this open-label phase 3b implementation study among all eligible HCWs in South Africa registered in the national Electronic Vaccination Data System (EVDS), we monitored adverse events (AEs) at vaccination sites through self-reporting triggered by text messages after vaccination, healthcare provider reports, and active case finding. The frequency and incidence rate of non-serious and serious AEs were evaluated from the day of first vaccination (17 February 2021) until 28 days after the final vaccination in the study (15 June 2021). COVID-19 breakthrough infections, hospitalisations, and deaths were ascertained via linkage of the electronic vaccination register with existing national databases. Among 477,234 participants, 10,279 AEs were reported, of which 138 (1.3%) were serious AEs (SAEs) or AEs of special interest. Women reported more AEs than men (2.3% versus 1.6%). AE reports decreased with increasing age (3.2% for age 18-30 years, 2.1% for age 31-45 years, 1.8% for age 46-55 years, and 1.5% for age > 55 years). Participants with previous COVID-19 infection reported slightly more AEs (2.6% versus 2.1%). The most common reactogenicity events were headache (n = 4,923) and body aches (n = 4,483), followed by injection site pain (n = 2,767) and fever (n = 2,731), and most occurred within 48 hours of vaccination. Two cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and 4 cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome were reported post-vaccination. Most SAEs and AEs of special interest (n = 138) occurred at lower than the expected population rates. Vascular (n = 37; 39.1/100,000 person-years) and nervous system disorders (n = 31; 31.7/100,000 person-years), immune system disorders (n = 24; 24.3/100,000 person-years), and infections and infestations (n = 19; 20.1/100,000 person-years) were the most common reported SAE categories. A limitation of the study was the single-arm design, with limited routinely collected morbidity comparator data in the study setting. CONCLUSIONS: We observed similar patterns of AEs as in phase 3 trials. AEs were mostly expected reactogenicity signs and symptoms. Furthermore, most SAEs occurred below expected rates. The single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine demonstrated an acceptable safety profile, supporting the continued use of this vaccine in this setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04838795; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202102855526180.

Effectiveness of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine in health-care workers in South Africa (the Sisonke study): results from a single-arm, open-label, phase 3B, implementation study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a single dose of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) in health-care workers in South Africa during two waves of the South African COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: In the single-arm, open-label, phase 3B implementation Sisonke study, health-care workers aged 18 years and older were invited for vaccination at one of 122 vaccination sites nationally. Participants received a single dose of 5 × 1010 viral particles of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine. Vaccinated participants were linked with their person-level data from one of two national medical insurance schemes (scheme A and scheme B) and matched for COVID-19 risk with an unvaccinated member of the general population. The primary outcome was vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19, defined as COVID-19-related admission to hospital, hospitalisation requiring critical or intensive care, or death, in health-care workers compared with the general population, ascertained 28 days or more after vaccination or matching, up to data cutoff. This study is registered with the South African National Clinical Trial Registry, DOH-27-022021-6844, ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04838795, and the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202102855526180, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between Feb 17 and May 17, 2021, 477 102 health-care workers were enrolled and vaccinated, of whom 357 401 (74·9%) were female and 119 701 (25·1%) were male, with a median age of 42·0 years (33·0-51·0). 215 813 vaccinated individuals were matched with 215 813 unvaccinated individuals. As of data cutoff (July 17, 2021), vaccine effectiveness derived from the total matched cohort was 83% (95% CI 75-89) to prevent COVID-19-related deaths, 75% (69-82) to prevent COVID-19-related hospital admissions requiring critical or intensive care, and 67% (62-71) to prevent COVID-19-related hospitalisations. The vaccine effectiveness for all three outcomes were consistent across scheme A and scheme B. The vaccine effectiveness was maintained in older health-care workers and those with comorbidities including HIV infection. During the course of the study, the beta (B.1.351) and then the delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variants of concerns were dominant, and vaccine effectiveness remained consistent (for scheme A plus B vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospital admission during beta wave was 62% [95% CI 42-76] and during delta wave was 67% [62-71], and vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19-related death during beta wave was 86% [57-100] and during delta wave was 82% [74-89]). INTERPRETATION: The single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine shows effectiveness against severe COVID-19 disease and COVID-19-related death after vaccination, and against both beta and delta variants, providing real-world evidence for its use globally. FUNDING: National Treasury of South Africa, the National Department of Health, Solidarity Response Fund NPC, The Michael & Susan Dell Foundation, The Elma Vaccines and Immunization Foundation, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

COVID-19 and resilience of healthcare systems in ten countries.

Declines in health service use during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic could have important effects on population health. In this study, we used an interrupted time series design to assess the immediate effect of the pandemic on 31 health services in two low-income (Ethiopia and Haiti), six middle-income (Ghana, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa and Thailand) and high-income (Chile and South Korea) countries. Despite efforts to maintain health services, disruptions of varying magnitude and duration were found in every country, with no clear patterns by country income group or pandemic intensity. Disruptions in health services often preceded COVID-19 waves. Cancer screenings, TB screening and detection and HIV testing were most affected (26-96% declines). Total outpatient visits declined by 9-40% at national levels and remained lower than predicted by the end of 2020. Maternal health services were disrupted in approximately half of the countries, with declines ranging from 5% to 33%. Child vaccinations were disrupted for shorter periods, but we estimate that catch-up campaigns might not have reached all children missed. By contrast, provision of antiretrovirals for HIV was not affected. By the end of 2020, substantial disruptions remained in half of the countries. Preliminary data for 2021 indicate that disruptions likely persisted. Although a portion of the declines observed might result from decreased needs during lockdowns (from fewer infectious illnesses or injuries), a larger share likely reflects a shortfall of health system resilience. Countries must plan to compensate for missed healthcare during the current pandemic and invest in strategies for better health system resilience for future emergencies.

Similar Antibody Responses Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Individuals Living Without and With Human Immunodeficiency Virus on Antiretroviral Therapy During the First South African Infection Wave.

BACKGROUND: There is limited understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pathogenesis in African populations with a high burden of infectious disease comorbidities such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The kinetics, magnitude, and duration of virus-specific antibodies and B-cell responses in people living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa have not been fully characterized. METHODS: We longitudinally followed SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and characterized SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain-specific immunoglobulin (Ig) M, IgG, and IgA weekly for 1 month and at 3 months post-diagnosis. Thirty of 72 (41.7%) were PLWH, 25/30 (83%) of whom were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with full HIV suppression. Plasma neutralization was determined using a live virus neutralization assay, and antibody-secreting cell population frequencies were determined by flow cytometry. RESULTS: Similar seroconversion rates, time to peak antibody titer, peak magnitude, and durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM, IgG, and IgA were observed in people not living with HIV and PLWH with complete HIV suppression on ART. In addition, similar potency in a live virus neutralization assay was observed in both groups. Loss of IgA was significantly associated with age (P = .023) and a previous diagnosis of tuberculosis (P = .018). CONCLUSIONS: Similar antibody responses and neutralization potency in people not living with HIV and PLWH on stable ART in an African setting suggest that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) natural infections may confer comparable antibody immunity in these groups. This provides hope that COVID-19 vaccines will be effective in PLWH on stable ART.

Tracking the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa using wastewater-based epidemiology.

This study uses wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to rapidly and, through targeted surveillance, track the geographical distribution of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (Alpha, Beta and Delta) within 24 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the Western Cape of South Africa. Information obtained was used to identify the circulating variant of concern (VOC) within a population and retrospectively trace when the predominant variant was introduced. Genotyping analysis of SARS-CoV-2 showed that 50% of wastewater samples harbored signature mutations linked to the Beta variant before the third wave, with the Delta variant absent within the population. Over time, the prevalence of the beta variant decreased steadily. The onset of the third wave resulted in the Delta variant becoming the predominant variant, with a 100% prevalence supporting the theory that the Delta variant was driving the third wave. In silico molecular docking analysis showed that the signature mutations of the Delta variant increased binding to host proteins, suggesting a possible molecular mechanism that increased viral infectivity of the Delta variant.

Spatial and Temporal Trends of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from Wastewater Treatment Plants over 6 Weeks in Cape Town, South Africa.

Recent scientific trends have revealed that the collection and analysis of data on the occurrence and fate of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater may serve as an early warning system for COVID-19. In South Africa, the first COVID-19 epicenter emerged in the Western Cape Province. The City of Cape Town, located in the Western Cape Province, has approximately 4 million inhabitants. This study reports on the monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the wastewater of the City of Cape Town's wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) during the peak of the epidemic. During this period, the highest overall median viral RNA signal was observed in week 1 (9200 RNA copies/mL) and declined to 127 copies/mL in week 6. The overall decrease in the amount of detected viral SARS-CoV-2 RNA over the 6-week study period was associated with a declining number of newly identified COVID-19 cases in the city. The SARS-CoV-2 early warning system has now been established to detect future waves of COVID-19.

Short-term real-time prediction of total number of reported COVID-19 cases and deaths in South Africa: a data driven approach.

BACKGROUND: The rising burden of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa has motivated the application of modeling strategies to predict the COVID-19 cases and deaths. Reliable and accurate short and long-term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths, both at the national and provincial level, are a key aspect of the strategy to handle the COVID-19 epidemic in the country. METHODS: In this paper we apply the previously validated approach of phenomenological models, fitting several non-linear growth curves (Richards, 3 and 4 parameter logistic, Weibull and Gompertz), to produce short term forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths at the national level as well as the provincial level. Using publicly available daily reported cumulative case and death data up until 22 June 2020, we report 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30-day ahead forecasts of cumulative cases and deaths. All predictions are compared to the actual observed values in the forecasting period. RESULTS: We observed that all models for cases provided accurate and similar short-term forecasts for a period of 5 days ahead at the national level, and that the three and four parameter logistic growth models provided more accurate forecasts than that obtained from the Richards model 10 days ahead. However, beyond 10 days all models underestimated the cumulative cases. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 23,551-26,702 cases in 5 days and an additional 47,449-57,358 cases in 10 days. While the three parameter logistic growth model provided the most accurate forecasts of cumulative deaths within the 10 day period, the Gompertz model was able to better capture the changes in cumulative deaths beyond this period. Our forecasts across the models predict an additional 145-437 COVID-19 deaths in 5 days and an additional 243-947 deaths in 10 days. CONCLUSIONS: By comparing both the predictions of deaths and cases to the observed data in the forecasting period, we found that this modeling approach provides reliable and accurate forecasts for a maximum period of 10 days ahead.